Ecuador’s National Surgical Strengthening Plan: first in Latin America, provides hope for surgical care agenda

Since 2015, there has been a notable increase in global efforts by various stakeholders to promote and advance surgical care policies, as proposed by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery (LCoGS) namely, the development of the National Surgical Obstetric Anesthesia Planning (NSOAP), a country- driven framework that offers a comprehensive approach to health ministries to enhance their surgical systems. Ecuador has affirmed its position as a leading advocate for surgical care in Latin America. Following a two-year process, Ecuador is the first country in the Region of the Americas to launch an NSSP as a key component of a robust health system, including improving emergency responsiveness and pre- paredness

ICD-10 based machine learning models outperform the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) in survival prediction.

BACKGROUND: Precise models are necessary to estimate mortality risk following traumatic injury to inform clinical decision making or quantify hospital performance. The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) has been the historical gold standard in survival prediction but its limitations are well-characterized. The present study used International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) injury codes with machine learning approaches to develop models whose performance was compared to that of TRISS. METHODS: The 2015-2017 National Trauma Data Bank was used to identify patients following trauma-related admission. Injury codes from ICD-10 were grouped by clinical relevance into 1,495 variables. The TRISS score, which comprises the Injury Severity Score, age, mechanism (blunt vs penetrating) as well as highest 24-hour values for systolic blood pressure (SBP), respiratory rate (RR) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was calculated for each patient. A base eXtreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost), a machine learning technique, was developed using injury variables as well as age, SBP, RR, mechanism and GCS. Prediction of in-hospital survival and other in-hospital complications were compared between both models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and reliability plots. A complete XGBoost model, containing injury variables, vitals, demographic information and comorbidities, was additionally developed. RESULTS: Of 1,380,740 patients, 1,338,417 (96.9%) survived to discharge. Compared to survivors, those who died were older and had a greater prevalence of penetrating injuries (18.0% vs 9.44%). The base XGBoost model demonstrated a greater receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) than TRISS (0.950 vs 0.907) which persisted across sub-populations and secondary endpoints. Furthermore, it exhibited high calibration across all risk levels (R2 = 0.998 vs 0.816). The complete XGBoost model had an exceptional ROC of 0.960. CONCLUSIONS: We report improved performance of machine learning models over TRISS. Our model may improve stratification of injury severity in clinical and quality improvement settings.

Surgical Safety Checklist Use and Post-Caesarean Sepsis in the Lake Zone of Tanzania: Results from Safe Surgery 2020.

BACKGROUND: Maternal sepsis accounts for significant morbidity and mortality in lower income countries, and caesarean delivery, while often necessary, augments the risk of maternal sepsis. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Safe Surgery 2020 surgical safety checklist (SSC) implementation on post-caesarean sepsis in Tanzania. METHODS: We conducted a study in 20 facilities in Tanzania's Lake Zone as part of the Safe Surgery 2020 intervention. We prospectively collected data on SSC adherence and maternal sepsis outcomes from 1341 caesarian deliveries. The primary outcome measure was maternal sepsis rate. The primary predictor was SSC adherence. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate independent associations between SSC adherence and maternal sepsis. RESULTS: Higher SSC adherence was associated with lower rates of maternal sepsis (<25% adherence: 5.0%; >75% adherence: 0.7%). Wound class and facility type were significantly associated with development of maternal sepsis (Wound class: Clean-Contaminated 3.7%, Contaminated/Dirty 20%, P = 0.018) (Facility Type: Health Centre 5.9%, District Hospital 4.5%, Regional Referral Hospital 1.7%, P = 0.018). In multivariable analysis, after controlling for wound class and facility type, higher SSC adherence was associated with lower rates of maternal sepsis, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.17 per percentage point increase in SSC adherence (95% CI: 0.04, 0.79; P = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to the SSC may reduce maternal morbidity during caesarean delivery, reinforcing the assumption that surgical quality interventions improve maternal outcomes. Future studies should continue to explore additional synergies between surgical and maternal quality improvement.

Outcomes of a multicomponent safe surgery intervention in Tanzania's Lake Zone: a prospective, longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-based strategies for improving surgical quality and patient outcomes in low-resource settings are a priority. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a multicomponent safe surgery intervention (Safe Surgery 2020) on (1) adherence to safety practices, teamwork and communication, and documentation in patient files, and (2) incidence of maternal sepsis, postoperative sepsis, and surgical site infection. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study in 10 intervention and 10 control facilities in Tanzania's Lake Zone, across a 3-month pre-intervention period in 2018 and 3-month post-intervention period in 2019. SS2020 is a multicomponent intervention to support four surgical quality areas: (i) leadership and teamwork, (ii) evidence-based surgery, anesthesia and equipment sterilization practices, (iii) data completeness and (iv) infrastructure. Surgical team members received training and mentorship, and each facility received up to a $10 000 infrastructure grant. Inpatients undergoing major surgery and postpartum women were followed during their stay up to 30 days. We assessed adherence to 14 safety and teamwork and communication measures through direct observation in the operating room. We identified maternal sepsis (vaginal or cesarean delivery), postoperative sepsis and SSIs prospectively through daily surveillance and assessed medical record completeness retrospectively through chart review. We compared changes in surgical quality outcomes between intervention and control facilities using difference-in-differences analyses to determine areas of impact. RESULTS: Safety practices improved significantly by an additional 20.5% (95% confidence interval (CI), 7.2-33.7%; P = 0.003) and teamwork and communication conversations by 33.3% (95% CI, 5.7-60.8%; P = 0.02) in intervention facilities compared to control facilities. Maternal sepsis rates reduced significantly by 1% (95% CI, 0.1-1.9%; P = 0.02). Documentation completeness improved by 41.8% (95% CI, 27.4-56.1%; P < 0.001) for sepsis and 22.3% (95% CI, 4.7-39.8%; P = 0.01) for SSIs. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate the benefit of the SS2020 approach. Improvement was observed in adherence to safety practices, teamwork and communication, and data quality, and there was a reduction in maternal sepsis rates. Our results support the emerging evidence that improving surgical quality in a low-resource setting requires a focus on the surgical system and culture. Investigation in diverse contexts is necessary to confirm and generalize our results and to understand how to adapt the intervention for different settings. Further work is also necessary to assess the long-term effect and sustainability of such interventions.

The Plastic Surgery Workforce and Its Role in Low-income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Plastic surgery varies in scope, especially in different settings. This study aimed to quantify the plastic surgery workforce in low-income countries (LICs), understand commonly treated conditions by plastic surgeons working in these settings, and assess the impact on reducing global disease burden. METHODS: We queried national and international surgery societies, plastic surgery societies, and non-governmental organizations to identify surgeons living and working in LICs who provide plastic surgical care using a cross-sectional survey. Respondents reported practice setting, training experience, income sources, and perceived barriers to care. Surgeons ranked commonly treated conditions and reported which of the Disease Control Priorities-3 essential surgery procedures they perform. RESULTS: An estimated 63 surgeons who consider themselves plastic surgeons were identified from 15 LICs, with no surgeons identified in the remaining 16 LICs. Responses were obtained from 43 surgeons (70.5%). The 3 most commonly reported conditions treated were burns, trauma, and cleft deformities. Of the 44 "Essential Surgical Package'' procedures, 37 were performed by respondents, with the most common being skin graft (73% of surgeons performing), cleft lip/palate repair (66%), and amputations/escharotomy (61%). The most commonly cited barrier to care was insufficient equipment. Only 9% and 5% of surgeons believed that there are enough plastic surgeons to handle the burden in their local region and country, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Plastic surgery plays a significant role in the coverage of essential surgical conditions in LICs. Continued expansion of the plastic surgical workforce and accompanying infrastructure is critical to meet unmet surgical burden in low- and middle-income countries.

Improving surgical quality in low-income and middle-income countries: why do some health facilities perform better than others?

BACKGROUND: Evidence on heterogeneity in outcomes of surgical quality interventions in low-income and middle-income countries is limited. We explored factors driving performance in the Safe Surgery 2020 intervention in Tanzania's Lake Zone to distil implementation lessons for low-resource settings. METHODS: We identified higher (n=3) and lower (n=3) performers from quantitative data on improvement from 14 safety and teamwork and communication indicators at 0 and 12 months from 10 intervention facilities, using a positive deviance framework. From 72 key informant interviews with surgical providers across facilities at 1, 6 and 12 months, we used a grounded theory approach to identify practices of higher and lower performers. RESULTS: Performance experiences of higher and lower performers differed on the following themes: (1) preintervention context, (2) engagement with Safe Surgery 2020 interventions, (3) teamwork and communication orientation, (4) collective learning orientation, (5) role of leadership, and (6) perceived impact of Safe Surgery 2020 and beyond. Higher performers had a culture of teamwork which helped them capitalise on Safe Surgery 2020 to improve surgical ecosystems holistically on safety practices, teamwork and communication. Lower performers prioritised overhauling safety practices and began considering organisational cultural changes much later. Thus, while also improving, lower performers prioritised different goals and trailed higher performers on the change continuum. CONCLUSION: Future interventions should be tailored to facility context and invest in strengthening teamwork, communication and collective learning and facilitate leadership engagement to build a receptive climate for successful implementation of safe surgery interventions.

In-Hospital Postoperative Mortality Rates for Selected Procedures in Tanzania's Lake Zone.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative mortality rate is one of six surgical indicators identified by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery for monitoring access to high-quality surgical care. The primary aim of this study was to measure the postoperative mortality rate in Tanzania's Lake Zone to provide a baseline for surgical strengthening efforts. The secondary aim was to measure the effect of Safe Surgery 2020, a multi-component intervention to improve surgical quality, on postoperative mortality after 10 months. METHODS: We prospectively collected data on postoperative mortality from 20 health centers, district hospitals, and regional hospitals in Tanzania's Lake Zone over two time periods: pre-intervention (February to April 2018) and post-intervention (March to May 2019). We analyzed postoperative mortality rates by procedure type. We used logistic regression to determine the impact of Safe Surgery 2020 on postoperative mortality. RESULTS: The overall average in-hospital non-obstetric postoperative mortality rate for all surgery procedures was 2.62%. The postoperative mortality rates for laparotomy were 3.92% and for cesarean delivery was 0.24%. Logistic regression demonstrated no difference in the postoperative mortality rate after the Safe Surgery 2020 intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Our results inform national surgical planning in Tanzania by providing a sub-national baseline estimate of postoperative mortality rates for multiple surgical procedures and serve as a basis from which to measure the impact of future surgical quality interventions. Our study showed no improvement in postoperative mortality after implementation of Safe Surgery 2020, possibly due to low power to detect change.

A country-level comparison of access to quality surgical and non-surgical healthcare from 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index, developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, uses estimates of amenable mortality to quantify health system performance over time. While much is known about general health system performance globally, few studies have portrayed the performance of surgical systems. In order to quantify access to quality surgical care, evaluate changes over time, and link these changes to health care investments, surgical and non-surgical Health Access and Quality sub-indices were developed. DESIGN: We categorized 32 amenable mortality causes as either surgical or non-surgical conditions. Using principal components analysis and scaled amenable mortality rates, we constructed a surgical and non-surgical Health Access and Quality sub-index. Using these sub-indices, relative improvement over time was compared. An expenditure model with country fixed effects was built to explore drivers of differences in relative improvement of sub-indices. RESULTS: Compared to low-income countries, high-income countries have been 2.77 times more effective at improving surgical care (p < .05). Government expenditure on healthcare has a larger effect on improving surgical Health Access and Quality (p < 0.05) while development assistance for health has a larger effect on improving non-surgical Health Access and Quality (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Global health investment must prioritize strengthening health systems as opposed to the historically favored vertical programming. In order to achieve health equity in low-income countries, more focus should be placed on domestic financing of surgical systems. Health Access and Quality sub-indices can be used by countries to identify targets, monitor progress, and evaluate interventions aimed at improving access to quality surgical healthcare.

Globalization of national surgical, obstetric and anesthesia plans: the critical link between health policy and action in global surgery.

Efforts from the developed world to improve surgical, anesthesia and obstetric care in low- and middle-income countries have evolved from a primarily volunteer mission trip model to a sustainable health system strengthening approach as private and public stakeholders recognize the enormous health toll and financial burden of surgical disease. The National Surgical, Obstetric and Anesthesia Plan (NSOAP) has been developed as a policy strategy for countries to address, in part, the health burden of diseases amenable to surgical care, but these plans have not developed in isolation. The NSOAP has become a phenomenon of globalization as a broad range of partners - individuals and institutions - help in both NSOAP formulation, implementation and financing. As the nexus between policy and action in the field of global surgery, the NSOAP reflects a special commitment by state actors to make progress on global goals such as Universal Health Coverage and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This requires a continued global commitment involving genuine partnerships that embrace the collective strengths of both national and global actors to deliver sustained, safe and affordable high-quality surgical care for all poor, rural and marginalized people.

Towards resilient health systems: opportunities to align surgical and disaster planning.

Natural disasters significantly contribute to human death and suffering. Moreover, they exacerbate pre-existing health inequalities by imposing an additional burden on the most vulnerable populations. Robust local health systems can greatly mitigate this burden by absorbing the extraordinary patient volume and case complexity immediately after a disaster. This resilience is largely determined by the predisaster local surgical capacity, with trauma, neurosurgical, obstetrical and anaesthesia care of particular importance. Nevertheless, the disaster management and global surgery communities have not coordinated the development of surgical systems in low/middle-income countries (LMIC) with disaster resilience in mind. Herein, we argue that an appropriate peridisaster response requires coordinated surgical and disaster policy, as only local surgical systems can provide adequate disaster care in LMICs. We highlight three opportunities to help guide this policy collaboration. First, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction set forth independent roadmaps for global surgical care and disaster risk reduction; however, ultimately both advocate for health system strengthening in LMICs. Second, the integration of surgical and disaster planning is necessary. Disaster risk reduction plans could recognise the role of surgical systems in disaster preparedness more explicitly and pre-emptively identify deficiencies in surgical systems. Based on these insights, National Surgical, Obstetric, and Anesthesia Plans, in turn, can better address deficiencies in systems and ensure increased disaster resilience. Lastly, the recent momentum for national surgical planning in LMICs represents a political window for the integration of surgical policy and disaster risk reduction strategies.

Recovery of mitral isthmus conduction leads to the development of macro-reentrant tachycardia after left atrial linear ablation for atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial linear ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) may be proarrhythmic, leading to left atrial macro-reentrant tachycardia (LAT). Whether due to failure to achieve block initially or to recovery of conduction after ablation is unknown. This study was designed to evaluate the frequency of recovery of mitral isthmus (MI) conduction compared with cavo-tricuspid isthmus (CTI) conduction, and the relationship between recovery of MI conduction and postablation LAT. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 163 patients with AF who underwent circumferential pulmonary vein ablation plus left atrial linear ablation, in whom MI and CTI ablation produced bidirectional conduction block, 52 underwent repeat ablation for recurrent atrial arrhythmias (AF or LAT). Of these 52 patients, coronary sinus ablation was required in 48 to achieve bidirectional MI block at the index ablation. During repeat ablation, MI and CTI conduction was assessed in sinus rhythm. At repeat ablation, MI conduction had recovered in 38 of 52 patients, as compared with CTI conduction which recovered in only 12 of 52 patients (P=0.001). At repeat ablation, the recurrent clinical arrhythmia in 12 patients was MI-dependent LAT. Recovery of MI conduction was associated with development of MI-dependent LAT (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Despite using bidirectional conduction block as a procedural end point, recovery of MI conduction is common and may lead to LAT after left atrial linear ablation for AF. The reason for greater recovery of MI versus CTI conduction is unknown but could be due to differences in isthmus anatomy or lower power used for ablation in the left versus right atrium.